Good afternoon. After starting the morning higher, ag markets again closed in the red on Wednesday for the second day in a row. Traders have mostly priced in the Russian wheat story, while this morning's NOPA crush report provided headwinds to the soy-complex. Otherwise, trade continues to be rather technical/choppy, with volatility likely to remain heightened.

CN closed mid-week at 4.62 1/2, down 5 cents. CZ was 4 cents lower at 4.87. CZ technically had an outside day lower. SN closed at 12.13 1/2, down a penny. SX was down 4 cents at 12.01. Also an outside day lower on Nov beans. WN closed at 6.65 3/4, down 6 3/4. Here too, outside day lower. Products were mixed, July bean meal closed at 371.70, down $1.60/ton, and July bean oil closed at 43.55, up 15 points. Inside day for bean oil. Livestock markets were quiet/mixed; June live cattle closed at 178.25, up 7 cents, August feeders closed at 255.87, up 20 cents, and June hogs closed at 97.50, down 82 cents. Inside day for feeders as well. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 60-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 300 points, and the US$ index is down 70 points. This the lowest the $ index has been since April 10th.

Spreads were mixed again, corn spreads were generally a quarter cent to a penny lower, and soybean spreads were unchanged to up 3 cents. CK/CN finished at -13 3/4, while the SK/SN finished at -15 1/2.

USDA this morning reported daily sales of 180,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 mt's is for delivery during the 2023/24 marketing year and 60,000 mt's is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year.

This morning's NOPA soybean crush report missed the mark in relation to trade expectations. Soybean crush for the month of April was seen at 166.034 mil bu; this was a three-year low for the month, was well below the average trade guess of 183.072 mil bu, and was down 4.2% from April of last year. Soybean oil stocks also came in below expectations at 1.755 bil lbs. The average trade guess was 1.882 bil lbs, which would've been an increase from last month instead of the realized decline of 5.2%. This was the main catalyst for the increase in soybean oil futures prices on Wednesday.

Also out this morning was weekly ethanol data, which came in above trade expectations on the production side. Daily production in the week ending May 10th was seen at 1.0 mil bbls, which was up 3.6% from last week, and up 1.3% from last year. The production figure was a five-week high and was also above the upper end of trade expectations. Stocks were seen at 24.489 mil bbls; this was up 1.2% from last week and up 5.6% from the same week last year. Corn grind for the week was estimated at 100 mil bu, up from 96 mil bu last week. Cumulative corn use has reached 3.695 bil bu, compared to the USDA forecast of 5.45 bil bu.

CPI for the month of April increased less than economists had predicted, rising 0.3% from March's reading. On a yearly basis through April, CPI increased 3.4%, compared to a 3.5% climb in March. The numbers suggest inflation resumed its downward trend at the start of Q2 and also boost the prospects of a September rate cut. On the other hand, retail sales were surprisingly flat in April while economists had forecast an increase of 0.4%. High gasoline prices pulled consumer spending away from other goods, indicating consumer spending was possibly losing momentum. The Dow Jones index gained nearly 150 points in the 5 minute period shortly following the report's release, while the US$ index fell to fresh four-week lows.

Weather forecasts continue to show the same general theme over the next 10 days, though the EU and GFS still have differing opinions on exact precip amounts/locations. The two models are in good agreement through the end of the week, but have significantly differing opinions on rainfall over the weekend and into the first part of next week. Most of the Corn Belt should see relatively dry conditions through the end of the week, with just scattered showers called for before more widespread rain returns the first part of next week. The GFS model has this rain further South into MO/IL/IN while the EU model sees the rains more in IA/WI/MI. Totals by both modes are seen generally in a range of 1-5". Close attention will be paid to how this develops through the end of the week.

This morning's slightly wetter bias for Russian wheat areas made it through to the mid-day run, though still a week+ out. This will also be monitored going forward for confirmation. Rains continue in Southern Brazil for at least another week to 10 days, while temps remain seasonally above average. Argentina sees normal rains over the next week, with temps seen running below average for another 5 days before warming slightly next week.