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Daily Morning Commentary
5.16.24
Volatility remains the name of the game. Big ranges in the futures markets continue as the traders try to figure out which way to go now after making new highs on Monday. Wheat up 10-13 cents overnight, corn up 2 and beans unchanged. Trying to pencil out world balance sheets right now is difficult at best and we really need to get to the middle of June before we start to have some clarity about Northern Hemisphere crop sizes. Look for more volatility for at least the rest of the month.
Day 2 of 3 on the Kansas wheat tour was yesterday. The first day found good yield potential of 52.7 bpa in the Eastern half of the state, yesterday they moved into the drought ridden SW corner and still found average yield potential of 42.4 bpa. That is way above last years drought reduced yield of 27.6 bpa and over the 5 year avg of 40.8 bpa. 42.4 isn't a high number, but if it isn't bad in SW Kansas, has too much been made of the dry HRW weather?
Export sales were very poor for soybeans, good but not great for corn and on the low end of expectations for wheat. U.S. wheat is priced out of world markets with the weather rally. Bad weather is a good reason for wheat markets to rally, but demand is needed for the markets to stay higher for the longer term.
-Chris