Daily Morning Commentary
5/1/24
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Overnight markets had wheat futures up a little, but as the morning rolls along they're back to trading down some and giving up the big gains of late. HRS (DNS, to you all) futures are still trying to hold their water, but there are big rains coming for Canada and MT/ND. If you're still holding DNS, you may want to do some soul searching...or accountant calling?
The Federal Reserve chairpersons will conclude their meeting today and let markets know their latest thoughts on interest rates and whatever else. Wall St now thinks there's no chance they'll cut rates until November, which would be a hard thing to think of since that'll be right after elections are over (hopefully). Either way, no rate cuts and hopefully no rate hikes.
Also, regarding macro markets, the monthly jobs report was better than markets were anticipating (meaning MORE jobs were had last month than guessed) AND they revised March's numbers higher. Yesterday another one of the government's reports said workers' wages are still growing and that's not good for the economy. Economics is a damn silly thing, eh? More people working and making more money is...not good! Their reasoning is that said people will spend their money, causing inflation to not curb and keeping this high demand-moderate supply world we live in cycling. It's a crazy thing to think the powers that be want you to save your monies and see people lose their jobs.
Okay, back to, uh, wheat. All of the chatter is about weather maps - still. That likely won't change for a month. It is prime time for corn planting and they're getting rain in the Corn Belt. Bad? Not really. Let me show you in pictures, since you lived through the above rant:
That is where corn is grown with the darker green being the more dense/productive areas. Got it?
That's last week's drought monitor (new one will come out tomorrow). A little dry in the heart of what is the Center/West Corn Belt, right (also Kansas)? Now the rainfall roll:
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So, a few changes since yesterday - a little less rain for Canada, a little more for SD, and that first graphic is the talk-o-the-town (did I ever tell you there's an old food truck in Walla Walla that says "the taco-the-town" for its slogan? Genius).
So, the conclusion I'm trying to lead you to is that even though corn planting is happening, and it might get wet and slow them down, they'll be okay with it so it can recharge their soil moisture profiles. The wild cards will be how W KS and the Canadian Prairies fare.
-Cory